Here's what I seem to have written in that draft thread:
I voted Doncic. I just don't think big men matter as much in 2019's NBA. A super versatile swing or forward who can handle the ball, pass, and shoot well is worth his weight in gold. Ayton is also a really great prospect, so if we end up with him, I'll be optimistic.
Later in the thread, I said:
I would be fine with Ayton. I get the sense that the FO may be leaning in his direction. I'd prefer Doncic, but Ayton is a safe pick who is likely to be a good NBA player. I am kind of expecting that we'll get the #2 pick and that the decision will essentially be made for us by whomever picks #1.
Here I am criticizing Ayton's defense. I don't think this post really holds up, since Ayton isn't exactly a bad defender.
I think if Ayton were even average on defense, I would want him. But he's a bad defender. In today's NBA I just don't think the premium on big men exists any more. Doncic is a better passer, shooter, ball-handler, and defender than Ayton. There's no reason to draft a big man who isn't an elite defender and rim protector in 2018-19.
People keep comparing Ayton to David Robinson, but that's bunk. Robinson was an awesome defender. Ayton isn't even close. I think people are just comparing them because they both have big muscles or something.
I think this longer post is maybe the closest I got to accurately describing what would happen with Ayton vs Doncic:
I think this comment is spot on. Ayton says he wants to play from the inside out. Well, great. That's not how you play winning basketball any more. As INF says, that style reduces ball movement and focuses on mid-range-ish 2-point shots when the other team is getting layups and 3s. And then on the other end, Ayton is either mediocre or bad depending on which scout you ask; he certainly is not a plus defender, and you really want your big man to be a great defender if you are going to play a somewhat "traditional" big. Capela is a great example. If Capela were a bit better at posting up but were not a good defender, would he be getting minutes in this Houston/GSW series?
I don't know how people are saying Ayton is a "can't miss" prospect. He absolutely can miss. He might end up being a rich man's Al Jefferson, a guy who can make buckets and score 18-20+ ppg but ultimately is not helpful for your offense, and who doesn't do his share on D, and therefore is not enough of a net positive.
And then you have Doncic, who arguably already has shown that he is a "did not miss" prospect. He is playing, as a pro, and he is dominating! And he is 19 years old. People think he won't get any better? Low ceiling? He. is. 19. He plays the game exactly the way the game is going, and he gives us exactly what we need. Ball movement, push the pace, good shooter, solid defender. Perfect to run our offense and be a gigantic PG that teams will hate matching up with. A starting lineup with Doncic-Booker-Jackson as our 1-2-3 will be a nightmare for the opposing team. Find a 3-and-D PF (hopefully Bender) and a D-and-rebounding center (maybe sign Capela as FA or trade for DeAndre Jordan) and that's a mean starting lineup.
As another way of thinking about it: If you could add one of the following players to this team, which one do you take? Entire-career Steve Nash, or entire-career Amare Stoudemire? As awesome as Amare was, you go Nash 10 times out of 10. The 2006 team showed that what really made us special was our ball movement, passing, 3-point shooting, and having a good mix of guys around Nash as the leader. That 2006 team on steroids is what we can be if we draft Doncic. He is not quite the same type of player as Nash (nor is Ayton quite like Amare), but having a great PG is every bit as important in 2018-19's NBA as a dominant big man.
On the fit with Booker, I wrote:
Yes, you start Doncic at PG, Booker at SG, and JJ at SF. That's a pretty nice 1-3 combination. All can score, all can pass, 2/3 can shoot, 2/3 can defend above average, 2/3 can rebound above average.
I acknowledge that it still leaves us with needs in the frontcourt, but you address those by internal development (Bender, Chriss, Warren), mixed with FA signings or trades (Jordan, Capela), mixed with possibly other draft picks.
Other random not-Luka/Ayton-related thoughts I posted there:
I think Kawhi wants to go to a big media/endorsement market, like LA or NY.
